The global outrage generated during two years of genocide in Gaza at its most intense and following “Israel’s” hijacking of the latest flotilla has abruptly turned to frustration for many people. In quick succession came the implementation of a supposed ceasefire, followed by a grotesque spectacle in Cairo with Trump surrounded by vassal international leaders, and finally the approval of UN Security Council Resolution 2803, which reinforces the oppression of the Palestinians. This series of maneuvers has managed, for now, to derail global protests from culminating in sanctions and punishment for genocide, causing a cooling of mobilization and morale in the face of political and media complicity and silence on Palestine.
The aim is to impose the cognitive dissonance exemplified by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, when he states that “Israel is committing genocide” but also that “there is a peace process” as if the former could be erased or complemented by the latter. As if the current cardboard backdrop could restore the “Israeli normality” that existed before October 7 by hiding the mountain of rubble and corpses, as well as the daily Zionist crimes in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

Without being distracted by this juggling act, a court of jurists and academics has condemned the Spanish state for having full knowledge of the genocide and not taking measures to suspend relations or impose the necessary sanctions, despite the gesture of boycotting Eurovision, which is inconsistent with the rest of its collaborations and relations with “Israel”.

In any case, this period of silence regarding the war being waged by the Israeli colony on its internal front against the native Palestinians and on its regional front against the natives allied with the former will soon come to an end. The underlying forces are driving an inexorable engine, and Netanyahu himself hinted at this a few weeks ago in an interview in the US.

“Israel will end its military dependence on the US and we will be self-sufficient. We never ask the US to fight our wars and I will say something about this very soon.”

Netanyahu is not delusional when he proposes the impossible self-sufficiency and independence from the US. On the contrary, what he seeks is the complete subordination of the US to Israeli decisions, but in a kind of reverse formulation. He is aware that the colony is an organic extension of the US and Europe, which cannot survive militarily or economically without the support of the collective Western metropolis. His final sentence, revealing a certain anxiety, is of great importance because it outlines the current context and the events to come.

In fact, Netanyahu made these statements as a hasty denial of the news revealing his demand for 20 years of military aid from the US, something much more in line with the reality of the vulnerable colony. “Israel” begging for help in private and flaunting its power in public has been the equation for at least the last ten years.

‘Israel’s’ rescues
“Israel” has used some 200 kilotons to devastate Gaza, equivalent to 13 Hiroshima bombs in conventional explosives supplied by the US from the arsenals of multiple countries, causing a severe shortage of TNT in the US and NATO. The media blame this explosives crisis on the war in Ukraine, but the reality is that the determining factor in the TNT stock shortage has been the execution of the Gaza holocaust over the past two years at the expense of cutting supplies to Kiev. With the rising value of explosives, “Israel” has gone from obtaining shells and bombs for free under Biden to having to pay for them from the US during the Trump era, and now to buying explosives on credit from third countries, i.e., on the promise of future payment.

Beyond the devastation and genocide in Gaza, the war has been very bad for the Zionist entity. In June, we saw how the US had to rescue “Israel” from its 12-day war against Iran, in which each passing day brought catastrophe for the Zionist colony without air defenses.

Afterwards, the US had to rescue “Israel” from Gaza with the current ceasefire fraud, in which, after sixty days, it continues to kill hundreds of Palestinians. But the staging was essential, given that sanctions against “Israel” began to emerge in September, driven by angry crowds in the streets around the world and specifically by the shocking image on the roads of Spain of spontaneous masses sabotaging the Vuelta cycling race.

But there was also a previous rescue of “Israel” by itself. On November 27, 2024, the regime proclaimed a unilateral ceasefire in Lebanon after two months of failed invasion of the country. The reason was the high military and human cost of the fighting on the ground, coupled with the heavy punishment Hezbollah was inflicting on Israeli operational centers and settlements, especially Hezbollah’s massive bombardment two days earlier, which “Israel” was unable to defend against with its anti-aircraft systems. Immediately after the ceasefire, which the Lebanese state adhered to, the US and “Israel” ordered al-Jolani to attack Syria with the primary objective of blocking supply chains from Syria to Lebanon, although al-Qaeda’s operation ended with the unexpected success of taking power in Damascus.

The situation has worsened for the Israeli army due to a lack of personnel, with internal tensions over the forced conscription of Orthodox settlers and reservists refusing to report for duty despite the regime offering them astronomical salaries.

The economic situation is particularly critical for the small entity of less than 7 million settlers, whose direct and indirect costs of the war amount to $300 million per day. That figure is equivalent to half of its entire inflated annual budget of $200 billion. How can it sustain itself for two years like this, beyond creating a black hole of government debt or printing unlimited amounts of money?

“Israel” is being kept alive in intensive care by the incessant and covert injection of funds from Europe and the US, and this can be seen in the Tel Aviv stock market bubble, with its hyperbolic historic rise since the bailout began in early 2024, when much of its economic activity was also paralyzed. Let us remember that in 2024, the US imposed record arms purchases from “Israel” on all its subjects, including Spain, as one of the ways of injecting liquidity into the genocidal regime. Another mechanism of assisted ventilation has been the issuance of war bonds on the US and EU stock markets, through which “Israel” has obtained tens of billions of euros, despite their classification as close to “junk bonds” but with ideological backing for their purchase by their patrons.

Despite these efforts, the outlook is really bad for “Israel”, with no possibility of sustainability over time.

The empire begins to abandon its colony
And so Netanyahu received an initial response from the reactionary sector in the US that defends “America first” against those who advocate “Israel first”. This oligarchic sector in the US asserts that “Israel” must seek its own self-sufficiency in the future. This faction of the once-unified Trump camp knows that it is not possible for “Israel” to achieve any kind of self-sufficiency, so, in practice, they are proposing to abandon the regime in the future and replace its functions in the region with the immensely wealthy, stable, and unscrupulous reactionary Arab regimes of the Gulf.

The White House’s recent “National Security Strategy” report is also a blow to the colony, as it reveals that the US has accepted that it cannot maintain itself as a global empire, focusing in the future on subjugating and plundering Latin America, relegating “Israel” to a secondary role behind the Arab regimes that are multiplying the wealth of Trump and his inner circle.

Therefore, the Palestinian Resistance is succeeding in its goal of causing fractures in the aggressor’s camp, which cannot be hidden by the current frozen frame in Gaza. This set of symptoms has been conveniently concealed during this impasse of strategic reorganization by the directors in Washington in their experiment in demographic engineering in Palestine.

But concealing the symptoms that reveal the colony’s vulnerability and its need for assistance does not mean addressing the various factors of internal decay. And those underlying factors are growing both within the US and within “Israel”, although a complete analysis of them exceeds the scope of this text. It is because of these specific factors of decay that the US and “Israel” share objectives, but their strategies differ in many cases.

In the case of “Israel”, I will cite only three factors. First and foremost, the inferior demographics of the settlers, who are gradually fleeing, with some 6.5 million Israelis actually living in Palestine compared to more than 8 million Palestinians in their land. Massively and rapidly reversing those figures by making millions of Palestinians disappear from Palestine is the primary condition for the colony’s existence.

Second, the loss of the Israeli army’s invincibility, with the colony exposed to attacks by Palestinians, Lebanon, Iran, or Yemen, accentuates the desire of Israelis to flee because they do not feel protected, aggravating the first factor of demographic crisis. Every year, the number of Israelis seeking to leave the regime increases by 50% in a geometric progression, as revealed by an internal report from the colonial parliament.

To prevent a mass exodus during the twelve-day war against Iran, Netanyahu sealed off the regime by closing the borders to any attempt by settlers to leave, which, in practice, amounted to a mass kidnapping of its population.

Thus, the Israeli army’s failures on the battlefield accentuate the growing flight dynamic, and for that reason, the US and “Israel” need to neutralize the Resistance forces throughout the region, although they disagree on how to do so.

Finally, “Israel’s” loss of its role as perpetual victim has been universally replaced by a role as perpetrator of genocide that cannot be reversed, even less so with the smoldering remains for many years of the gigantic Gaza-Hiroshima-Auschwitz with the two million Palestinians still confined within the extermination camp. The US and “Israel” need the colony to restore its role as victim and “vibrant democracy”, as so many leaders have always whitewashed the criminal regime. Achieving the transformation from executioner to victim is a priority so that the snowball of sanctions never begins to roll, and beyond attempting to manipulate information on social media and in the media, Netanyahu has a trump card that will be explained later.

In addition to other structural factors, these three are the ones that, in turn, condition circumstantial factors, such as Netanyahu’s legal situation, political alliances, and the upcoming elections, all of which will guide the course of decisions within the Israeli regime.

Once again, we come back to the meaning of Mileikowsky’s last sentence, pseudo-indigenized with the surname Netanyahu.

What Netanyahu is expressing in his statements is not the achievement of economic or military self-sufficiency. He knows that this is impossible in the extremely dependent circular relations between the colony and the metropolis.

The Cuban-American cultural paradox: Walls closing bridges
Netanyahu is showing his nervousness about the US strategies he has had to comply with in recent months, which require a lot of time to implement, that neither the Israeli regime nor Netanyahu himself have, and he also knows, correctly, that some are doomed to failure.

Netanyahu is anticipating his future break from subordination to US strategies and proposing a reversal of the equation: that at some point, he will impose his own strategies on some fronts and the US will have to throw its unconditional support behind him.

When, in the history of a colony, the scenario leads to collapse, the colonists have always sought to change the scenario by extreme means.

Gaza
Trump’s victory in the UN Security Council approving the US colonial mandate in Gaza is more of a spectacle than a real triumph on the ground in the goal of emptying Palestine of Palestinians.

The US strategy is to create prefabricated housing settlements in the 60% of Gaza currently occupied by Israel (“green zone”), which may be joined by US troops and a hypothetical international army or mercenaries. The idea of Tony Blair as a colonial governor has already failed due to rejection by Arab countries.

The plan is for Palestinians to be allowed access to these “communities” after undergoing interrogation, biometric registration, monitoring, and permanent surveillance. They would be prison towns disconnected from each other, with food, shelter, and some services conditional on the behavior of the Palestinians, who would be incentivized or pressured daily to leave Palestine.

Palestinians who refuse internment in the green zone will remain in the “red zone”, that is, the remaining 40% of Gaza, the most barren area with no farmland, basically beaches in the middle of an ocean of rubble, with minimal supplies, abandoned to their fate and subjected to periodic Israeli massacres. This is what is happening today.

Netanyahu knows that this experiment of transferring “subjugated Palestinians” from one area to another will be extremely slow for “Israel’s” urgent needs and his own personal interests, uncertain in its outcome, and, above all, a failure in achieving the goal of disarming the Palestinians and getting them to leave Gaza.

The international force will not arrive on the terms set out in the UN resolution. Never in history has “Israel” allowed blue helmets or anything with a similar function. “Israel” will only accept troops that kill Palestinians in place of the Israeli army, whether they come from unlikely countries collaborating in genocide or, more likely, from mercenary companies that have already killed more than 2,000 Palestinians in Gaza.

However, Netanyahu does find the military base that the US says it will build next to Gaza useful because it leverages American troops who would become human shields, with possible positive repercussions for “Israel” if they are attacked by missiles.

However, history tells a different story. When 240 US Marines and 60 French soldiers were killed in Beirut in 1983 by the Lebanese Resistance, the opposite actually happened: the US and France fled Lebanon. Therefore, Netanyahu’s hope is only a hypothesis. The US also fled Somalia in 1993 when dozens of Marines were killed.

In any case, for the regime right now, Gaza is the least threatening front, and “Israel” will give the US leeway to implement its plans, even if they are slow, tedious, and uncertain, until the impossibility of the monstrosity called the peace plan becomes clear. Meanwhile, the regime will continue to try to feed gangster groups to confront the Resistance and apply maximum collective torture to the Palestinians, including the West Bank, to a level tolerable enough for the major international media to maintain their current silence.

In this way, Netanyahu will be able to sustain his government and renew it in the 2026 elections, but the main contradiction will remain: the Palestinians are not leaving, they are not surrendering their weapons, they will continue to fight if the “ceasefire” is declared over, and the settlers will continue to want to leave the colony.

Lebanon
Lebanon is the most important front for the Zionist entity in this stage of regional decolonization. The Lebanese Resistance demonstrated its ability to completely empty Israeli settlements, which today remain largely uninhabited, as well as to strike vital installations, aggravating the regime’s economic and social situation with hundreds of thousands of settlers housed in hotels paid for by their government.

At that point, the war froze a year ago with two objectives: first, to create the blurred scenario of a supposed ceasefire under which “Israel” has been able to continue with impunity its devastation, hundreds of murders, and bombings of the country, as well as occupy part of southern Lebanon, counting on the inaction of the UN peacekeepers. In the short term, “Israel” seeks to turn the land south of the Litani River to the Palestinian border into a wasteland by ethnically cleansing the Lebanese, dreaming of its colonization and “annexation” in the future.

But Israeli social decay continues due to the settlers’ fear of Hezbollah’s military capabilities, of its mere existence, because of the long shadow cast by a native force capable of exposing the vulnerability of the colony, even in its current stage of not responding to aggression, reorganization, and rearmament, which continues through the almost non-existent state that is present-day Syria.

Hezbollah’s current red line for responding to “Israel” lies in the certain threat of mass devastation and genocide of the Lebanese people, not in losing valuable figures from the party.

Therefore, the second and most important objective of the US and “Israel” during this year of “ceasefire” in Lebanon has been to try to disarm Hezbollah. To this end, they have placed individuals loyal to them in positions of political power in order to force this disarmament using the Lebanese army, with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam playing a particularly prominent role. Lebanon has experienced enormous institutional tensions this year as a result of Salam’s order to his army to disarm the Resistance before the end of 2025, fueling the real possibility of a Lebanese civil war, given that the US is pressuring Lebanon to use force.

That is “Israel’s” main objective: to try to wear down the Resistance forces in a Lebanese civil war, in which “Israel” could even reuse the al-Qaeda forces that govern Syria to invade Lebanon and attack Hezbollah.

Finally, President Joseph Aoun declared it impossible to disarm Hezbollah, rejecting the order from the US and “Israel” and infuriating both, and even announced that the Lebanese Army could begin to respond to the constant Israeli attacks, which de facto means aligning the Army with the Lebanese Resistance.

The failure to disarm Hezbollah is leading the Israeli regime to wage war against Lebanon in the coming weeks, applying extreme punishment to make the Lebanese people pay for their support of the Resistance, seeking to inflict devastation and extermination on Lebanon similar to that of Gaza. At that point, “Israel” would attempt to activate its plan for certain Lebanese groups in the pay of Arab regimes to take up arms, blaming Hezbollah for the bombings and thus sparking a Lebanese civil war.

In any case, once the attack on Lebanon begins, we will enter uncertain territory in which it is difficult to predict how “Israel’s” aggression will unfold. On the one hand, there are the different strategies of the US and “Israel”; on the other, the material possibilities of the US providing Tel Aviv with sufficient bombs; and finally, the repercussions of the likely response from allies of the Lebanese Resistance, such as Yemen, Iraqi groups, and, above all, Iran.

The international community continues to be shaken by the holocaust in Gaza. The historical context is not that of “Israel’s” 1982 invasion of Lebanon, and the Israeli regime is on the brink. Under what premises could “Israel” carry out devastation and extermination in Lebanon without an October 7 that gave it a temporary cover for the Palestinian genocide, and what would be the international consequences? Will the US reverse its reorientation against Latin America, as shown by its current aggression against Venezuela, and begin to provide military support and supplies to “Israel” as it has done for the last two years? And related to the latter, what would happen if the Yemenis, Iraqis, and Iranians began to attack “Israel” in defense of Lebanon and disabled the functionality and operability of the Israeli regime with their missiles?

The regional war scenario
The factor of Zionism regaining military invincibility is fundamental to preventing settlers from continuing to leave “Israel”, and in the rest of the regional scenario, “Israel’s” remaining allies have also suffered more failures than successes.

Syria is the only place where Zionism has achieved a victory in this period, by getting its agent, al-Jolani, and his forces to take power, allowing “Israel” to continue its invasion of the country and establish military bases 20 km from Damascus. Under the guise of a decisive victory for the empire, telling the leader of al-Qaeda that “your success is our success,” lies the seed of its future problems. The US intention for Syria to remain a unified state, functional and useful to its service, has been derailed by the pulverization of state structures, the mass killings of different Syrian social groups by al-Jolani’s forces, and the progressive balkanization of the country pushed by “Israel”. In this context of chaos, Resistance groups that have confronted the Israeli army have already emerged, and the supply of weapons to Lebanon has continued.

The US was defeated in the Red Sea war by Yemen, bombing the country from a thousand kilometers away to avoid Yemeni missiles and finally withdrawing several of its vulnerable aircraft carriers for lengthy repairs, due to “accidental damage” according to the US Navy.

It is precisely in Yemen that Zionist plans for the Emirates to arm a mercenary army in Aden, their occupied zone in the south of the country, capable of overthrowing the government in Sanaa in an operation similar to that in Syria, continue to fail. The Emirates has ruled out this objective of supporting “Israel” due to the deterrent capacity of the Ansar Allah government with its army and missiles threatening vital Emirati or Saudi infrastructure. In Abu Dhabi, they are more focused on continuing the genocide in Sudan to plunder that country and now also on the resources of the Yemeni territory controlled by Saudi Arabia, launching their forces against those areas unexpectedly. This has triggered a Saudi-Emirati intra-Zionist competition for Yemeni land and oil, while the Ansar Allah government is strengthening itself and declaring that it is ready to attack “Israel” again as soon as the context demands it.

In Iraq, the US’ political extortion to disarm Palestinian-allied groups that have managed to attack Haifa and the Golan Heights in recent months has also failed, and Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani has literally copied the Lebanese president’s statements, saying that it is not possible to disarm the Resistance groups. Al-Sudani’s defeat comes after another scandalous one in recent days when, under pressure from the US, he included Hezbollah and Ansar Allah on a list of “terrorist organizations”, which he later revoked due to popular pressure.

In Iran, the US attempt to get the country to disarm its missiles and drones under the guise of a supposed nuclear deal negotiation also fell apart, and the reimposition of sanctions no longer affects the country as it did ten years ago. Since the 12-day war in June, in which the attempt at regime change failed and Iran threatened to paralyze the Israeli regime, missile production in the country has multiplied in preparation for what may lie ahead.

This is where Netanyahu’s statement that he will make his own decisions comes into play, because in the current landscape of absolute darkness, the only light he sees for the regime is to drag the US and Arab regimes into his regional war, but with full involvement and all the necessary military and economic resources. Of course, the US does not support getting involved in a massive confrontation with Iran because its military bases throughout the region would be destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed to oil traffic, and oil prices would skyrocket across the globe. The consequences for the declining hegemony of the US and for the dollar itself could be disastrous. On a smaller scale, it is also doubtful that the US would openly participate in the devastation of Lebanon.

But for “Israel”, launching a massive bombing campaign against Lebanon is the first step in its quest to achieve the aforementioned objectives and ensure Zionism’s military victory in the region, which could lead to unpredictable events. If all of Western Asia is catastrophically set ablaze, including a massive war against Iran, “Israel” will try to use the trump card of a new and gigantic October 7, causing the regime itself countless Israeli deaths, with the settlers once again kidnapped by their government, as in June. A massive Hannibal Directive would allow it to appeal to a new Jewish holocaust in order to suddenly regain the fraudulent role of victim, demand the unconditional help of the US, Europe, and various regimes in the region, and try to obtain durable support, as in 1948, which includes emptying Palestine of millions of Palestinians as the only way to “pacify the region.”

Once again, we must make the historical reminder that when settlers find themselves in a scenario of complex factors that collapse their colony, they will resort to maximum extremism in an attempt to change the scenario abruptly, albeit in a futile manner, because by failing to address all the factors involved, what they achieve is to bring forward the horizon of collapse.

In this greater isolation of the Israeli regime as it moves toward catastrophic devastation, the great unknown is whether the button for “Israel’s” nuclear weapons is controlled in Washington or is for the exclusive use of Tel Aviv.

Source: Al-Mayadeen